[PSA] The Anniversary Offers and New Legendary Arena Special Offer are for Instant Gratification, Not Great Value

Clash Royale turned one year old this month! In celebration, they released a new Special Offer for the revamped Legendary Arena and two new Offers for their Anniversary. These are:

  • $4.99 for 20K Gold and 500 Gems
  • $19.99 for 100K Gold and a Super Magical Chest
  • $24.99 for 100K Gold and an Ultimate Champion Draft Chest

The baseline comparison for any new offer is to stack it up against the current best value available in the game, Grand Challenge runs. Achieving three wins per Grand Challenge, the median player can earn 3,200 Gold and 85 Cards (including an average of 0.85 Epic cards and 8.5 Rare cards). However, these rewards improve with volatile performance. For example, a 5-win run and 1-win run have better combined rewards than two 3-win runs. With a little bit of math, we see that the average gold reward is 3,686.34 and the average card reward is 119.53.

Since you can convert 100 Gems via Grand Challenge into ~3,686 Gold, ~120 Cards (plus 20-30 minutes of challenging gameplay!) how does that stack up against the offers?

  • $4.99 for 20K Gold and 500 Gems is a fine offer for light spenders and provides fair value. The 100Gems/$1.00 doesn't stack up well against the more expensive offers, notably the "Mountain of Gems" which provides 140Gems/$1.00. The extra 20K is what really makes it valuable. By contrast, the 200 Gems you could get for that $4.99 purchase (as part of a Mountain of Gems) would be worth an average 7372 Gold and 240 Cards in Grand Challenges. Then compare what's left… would you rather have 12,628 Gold from the special offer or 240 cards and an hour of Grand Challenge gameplay from just buying gems? I'd take the GC, but it's a matter of whether you enjoy playing them.

  • $19.99 for 100K Gold and a Super Magical Chest is only worth it if you want the instant gratification from purchasing an SMC (an Arena 11 SMC contains an average 4428 Gold and 738 cards with guaranteed 24 epics, 147 rares). The $19.99 could have bought you 2500 gems for 25 Grand Challenge runs worth an average 92,150 Gold and 3000 cards with estimated 30 epics, 300 rares. Is the extra 12,278 Gold worth the extra 2,262 Cards you're missing? No. The value gets even better for the GCs if you save up to buy a Mountain of Gems for them, instead.

  • $24.99 for 100K Gold and an Ultimate Champion Draft Chest is only worth it if you want to experience the new Draft Chest mechanic early and get a guaranteed 1-2 legendary cards (flashback to the 15K tourney days). The UCDC contains an average 10,020 Gold and 501 cards with guaranteed 1 legendary, 50 epics, 250 rares. By comparison, $24.99 could have bought you at least 3000 gems for 30 Grand Challenge runs worth an average 110,580 Gold and 3600 Cards with estimated 36 epics, 360 rares. This seems pretty close on paper, but those extra 3,100 Cards are nothing to sneeze at… even if there is no guaranteed legendary you are quite likely to get one. Again, the odds are even better if you save that $24.99 toward a Mountain of Gems, one-fourth of which can get you 35 Grand Challenge Runs.

If you find yourself regularly dropping hundreds of dollars on the game, these offers might be a quick and easy way to get more value than just buying SMCs. On the other hand, if you only have $4.99 to spend, then obviously grab the extra 20K gold. However, if you are a moderate spender, enjoy playing Grand Challenges and want the best bang for your buck, don't bother with these offers and just spend your cash buying gems for GC runs.

But it is the birthday of Clash Royale–maybe you want to buy them a present anyways! After all, they did give you a Magical Chest as a party favor. ?

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